In a month President Petro Poroshenko can celebrate an important date - two and a half years of his rule.
Equator of the presidential term is a good occasion to reflect on whether or not to run again for president. In summer, Poroshenko’s political strategist and chairman of his faction, Ihor Hryniv, told that the president will go to a second term.
“In my understanding, there is no doubt. The president will go for a second term, and this is a terrible and great responsibility,” he said.
Perhaps, Hryniv had reasons to say so. In summer, the so-called "kitchen" of the president's office, which includes only his close associates, has held two meetings.
During the first meeting, Poroshenko discussed the possibility of running for a second presidential term in 2019, and the risks associated with it.
Several meetings on this issue were held in the autumn. He also talked about presidential ratings, rebranding of the party and activity of the chairman of the faction "Fatherland" Yulia Tymoshenko.
Meetings were held in different formats, sometimes between four or six participants: Ihor Hryniv, Borys Lozhkin, who is retired from the post of chairman of the AP, MP and former press secretary Poroshenko Iryna Friz, Prosecutor General Yuri Lutsenko, one of the leaders of the BPP faction and an old friend of President Ihor Kononenko, Minister of Information Policy Yuri Stets, and then the new head of Presidential Administration Ihor Raynin.
In late August, the sociological group "Rating" published the results of its poll. The results were disappointing for Poroshenko.
According to the poll, Yulia Tymoshenko has received 10.4% of the voters’ support, Yuriy Boyko (Opposition bloc) has 7%, and Poroshenko has got only 6.4%.
“When we saw the results, we decided to conduct our own rating. But no one knows the results,” said one of the close associates of Poroshenko.
But soon the results of president’s survey squeezed into public sources. So, as of September, Poroshenko was supported by 9.8% of all respondents, followed with minimal lag within statistical error - Yulia Tymoshenko with her 9.3%, and Yuri Boyko - 6.1%. Fourth place in the ranking took an unexpected person - the leader of the group "Okean Elzy" Svyatoslav Vakarchuk with a rating of 5.6%.
Hryniv believes that Vakarchuk poses the greatest threat among those politicians that do not belong to the system. He might follow the political path of Nadia Savchenko. But his electoral field is about 18% - said one of the companions Poroshenko, adding that the outflow of ratings to Vakarchuk comes from Tymoshenko and Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy, who previously was considered the main rival of Poroshenko.
But Vakarchuk may pose a threat to Poroshenko if he really decides to be engaged in politics.
Currently, Yulia Tymoshenko is much more dangerous candidate. Here Tymoshenko is not alone. The same purpose is set by the "Opposition bloc." The presidential camp is talking about very specific arrangements between Tymoshenko and co-chair of the opposition faction Sergei Lyovochkin. together they are trying to make the situation unstable.
Today Tymoshenko has two main themes - reducing utility tariffs and a ban on the sale of agricultural land. On this occasion, Tymoshenko initiated the campaign and start collecting signatures for a national referendum on popular initiative.
“We calculate that Tymoshenko is “working with” tariff Maidan and communicates with the former ATO soldiers dissatisfied. Her story is simple - the hysteria of poverty and impoverishment of tariffs,” say the sources from the president’s circles.
So how the president’s administration is going to fight with the activity of Tymoshenko? It is planning to emphasize her pro-Russian position and due to the union with the "opposition."Poroshenko’s trumps
During the annual YES Forum, organized by the businessman Viktor Pinchuk, Ihor Hryniv was asked by te journalists whether Poroshenko would run for a second term.
“The presidential campaign of 2014 was fast, we were forced to put out fires, - started Hryniv. - Now we have to establish communication with society, must shape the debate, create a dialogue.”
Poroshenko’s team intends to change his military rhetoric to a more socially oriented to obtain the support of a broad spectrum of voters.
According to our sources, after Vitali Klitschko resigned chairman of Bloc of Petro Poroshenko, the president offered this post to Groisman. The local BPP cells are active. But to achieve this goal Poroshenko need³ to align the economic situation in the country, and for this he needs an effective prime minister, despite the inner conflicts between them.