Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

US misses expectations for jobs added, but unemployment hits lowest level since 1969
FTSE grabs relief at end of painful week as stock markets welcome Bureau of Labor Statistics figures
Insurance companies slide after FCA unveils plans to stop loyalty penalty for renewing policyholders
BP appoints insiderBernard Looney as CEO after Bob Dudley retires
Wrap-up: FTSE closes 1.1pc up, easing indexs pain
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Job seekers line up to speak to recruiters during an Amazon job fair in Dallas

LM Otero/AP
Not terrible was just good enough for stock markets today and the FTSE certainly needed it.
Today was more than just a positive outcome: gains were actually fairly significant, with its best one-day result since last December. It was a bit of relief, a bit of pound support and, yes, maybe a bit of dead cat bounce but whatever it was, it worked.
Nonetheless, it was the worst week for the index overall since August, and at several points looked like it would be a lot more than that. It seems fair to say sensitivities are still high, however.
Thats all from me, at the end of what has felt like a long week on the markets. I hope you enjoyed following along. Im back on Tuesday, so my colleague Michael ODwyer will be your live blog host on Monday: join us then!
Ben Marlow: Bob Dudleys BP legacy is secure, but challenges lie ahead
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

BP's CEO Bob Dudley is to be replaced with company insider Bernard Looney

Lucy Nicholson/REUTERS
Even in a week packed with high-profile exits, Bob Dudleys decision to leave BP is a big one: after takingthe helm at the energy giant in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon scandal, he managed to steady the companys course in a sector facing major challenges.
Our Chief City Commentator Ben Marlow writes:

If Dave Lewis is tetchy about Tescos lacklustre share price as his five-year reign comes to an end, Bob Dudley must have banned all talk of BP's.
It was 440p when the Texan was parachuted into the hot seat in October 2010 and nine years later, as the 64-year-old prepares to stand down, it has risen to just 491p.
A paltry 11pc gain for what ranks as one of the toughest corporate rescue jobs of all-time must feel like a whack round the head with a monkey wrench.
You can read Bens full assessment of the BP bosss legacy here:Bob Dudley brought BP back from the brink but a new horizon beckons
And while youre here, sign up to Bensnewsletter to get his daily insight into the City straight to your inbox:
City Intelligence newsletter (SUBSCRIBER) Article
Sterling sinks as Brexit chatter drags on
The pound is having a pretty miserable day, down about 0.65pc on the day against the dollar, and dropping more than half a percent against other major currencies.
Brexit uncertainty is likely to be the biggest factor, though a strengthening dollar will also be putting pressure on the currency.
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Car sales struggled in September
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

The new car market continued to struggle in September

Oli Scarff/Getty Images
Heres my colleague Tom Rees on car sales figures from this morning:

The car market struggled to bounce backfrom a double-digit decline in the crucial month ofSeptember as new plates failed to lure in drivers.
New carregistrationsmotored1.3pchigher year-on-year to 343,255 last month, a meagre rebound from a 20pc plunge in September 2018, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Sales slumpedlast year after the imposition of new emissions standards on cars left manufacturers struggling to get enough certified vehicles onto forecourts in time.
Read more here: New plates fail to boost battered car sector as sales splutter
FTSE gains hit 1.1pc
That US report really has lit a fire under the FTSE, which is now up around 1.1pc patching up some of its losses from this week.
Solid gains are being felt across stock exchanges in Europe and the US, but London is leading the pack.
By my calculations, that will leave the total amount knocked off blue-chips this week at about ?75bn: bad, but better than it looked it several points.
Afternoon reads: Oil price sinks, the EU vs Facebook, and the tech billionaire aiming for Londons start-ups
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg listens to a question as he testifies before a House Energy and Commerce hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington last year

Andrew Harnik/AP
As things wind down and we head towards the weekend, here are three great reads to see you through to the end of play:
Saudi drone attacks show little lasting impact as oil prices sink again:Economics editor Russell Lynch assesses a bleak picture for oil prices.
The EU wants to bind Facebook to its will again but this time it may have gone too far: US tech reporter Laurence Dodds says the EU risks entrenching the power of social media giants.
Tej Kohli: The Indian tech billionaire who plans to turbocharge Britain's start-up scene: Special correspondent James Cook on the 61-year-old investors hoping to shake-up Londons tech scene.
Quote of the day is from Jamess article:

Its like Schindlers List, Kohli says of paying for cornea transplants. You do a few, you have to save a few more.
Technology intelligence - newsletter promo - EOA
Markets look green all over
Traders are happy indeed with those jobs figures stock indices across Europe and US are posting gains in the 0.4pc to 0.8pc range: not mind-blowing numbers, but a healthy turnaround from a ropey week.
The FTSE is likely to have had its worst week in two months but its losing streak seems to have broken.
Five key points
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

A womanwaits in line to apply for a job with Marshalls during a job fair at Dolphin Mall in Miami

Lynne Sladky/AP
Here are Bloombergs five key points from todays US economic figures (note the word mixed bag is getting heavily used today):
The report was a mixed bag. Headline job growth was 136,000 in August, disappointing forecasts, but the unemployment rate dropped to a fresh 50-year low.
Average hourly earnings growth slipped to the lowest in more than a year, presenting some risk to consumers, who currently hold up the economy's growth.
Overall, thetrend for job gains is stepping down, though. The 3-month moving average for private payrolls sits at the lowest since 2012, as employers add fewer workers. Manufacturing jobs contracted 2,000 in the month, the second time that's happened this year. It comes amid the recession in the industry in the U.S.
Thereport leaves the Fed in pretty much the same spot as before: payrolls are consistent with forecasts, but growth in the second half of the year is still solid.
After the report was released, thedollar weakened, while futures rose and bond yields rosemildly. Market basically thought: good enough.
Economic Intelligence newsletter SUBSCRIBER (article)
US economics reaction
Heres some reaction to those US numbers...
Paul Ashworth from Capital Economics writes:

The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, Septembers employment report was something of a mixed bag with the unemployment rate dropping to a 50-year low, while average hourly earnings were stagnant on the month.

Stenn Groups Celine Hartmanshenn has focused on the trade figures, which show the balance between the US and China narrowed in September. She adds:

The world will be watching this month as China and the US go back to the negotiating table. Whether they like it or not, these two economies are interconnected. China is dealing with massive overcapacity, high debt levels and a need for US dollars. And the US relies on China pumping these dollars back into the US to fund its debt.
The glaring weakness in this report is wages. We all got excited last year when annual wage gains topped 3%. But the acceleration hasn't continued, and now the pace of growth is slowing (at least for headline -- slightly better news for nonsupervisory). Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) October 4, 2019
Out from under the umbrella: Dame Helena Morrissey steps down from Legal & General Asset Management
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Dame Helena Morrissey

Andrew Crowley
Helena Morrissey has announced plans to leave Legal & General Asset management after less than three years heading up its personal investment wing.
Dame Helena, one of the Citys most prominent bosses, and is an outspoken support of Brexit and a campaigner for greater female representation on FTSE 100 company boards.
She said:

Ive really enjoyed my time at LGIM, but I see a changing Britain and have a lot of ideas and other things that I want to achieve. I am looking forward to the next phase of my career at a time of great change and opportunity.

She will step down on October 21.
Heres our interview with Dame Helena, from last month:Dame Helena Morrissey, financier and mother of nine: I can feel overwhelmed and I am not ashamed to admit it
So @LauraOnita & I counting the City bosses who announced their exits this week: Lewis, Gilbert, Hill, Dudley, Collins, Morrissey, Cooper & bonus ball Rogers, who's actually going to a new job. Did we miss any? Jon Yeomans (@JonLYeomans) October 4, 2019
Trump tweets...
Breaking News: Unemployment Rate, at 3.5%, drops to a 50 YEAR LOW. Wow America, lets impeach your President (even though he did nothing wrong!). Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 4, 2019
Heres more on impeachment:Donald Trump pressures UK to investigate the investigatorsover origins of Mueller inquiry
FTSE pushes past 0.5pc
After jumped to 0.7pc up in the direct aftermath of those results, the FTSE has slightly pared back gains to stand 0.5pc up. If it can hold that level, the weeks overall losses will being smaller than those in early August.
The blue-chip index is getting further support from an increasingly weak pound, as the dollar rallies.
Snap wrap: Stocks rise on mixed figures for US economy
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Job seekers input information on computers during a Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) Job Readiness Event in Detroit

Erin Kirkland/Bloomberg
The FTSE jumped to 0.7pc up on the day and Wall Street futures advanced after US jobs data missed expectations but swerved the major blip that some analysts had feared.
The US added 136,000 non-farm jobs in September, falling short of expectations of 145,000.
Other figures offered more positive signs, however: unemployment managed to somehow drop even further, hitting a 50-year low of 3.5pc, while adjustments to Augusts job change figures made the picture brighter overall.
The result was unexpectedly shaky, but still prompted a burst of relief on stock markets, where traders had been braced for a repeat of the two major misses for manufacturing and services data registered earlier this week.
So #payrolls a mixed bag;

- Upward revisions to Jul & Aug, net +45k
- Unemp rate falls to 3.5%, lowest since Dec 1969

- Headline miss 136k v 145k exp.
- Softer wages, 2.9% YoY & 0.0% MoM

Pretty solid report for $USD, but eyes on #Fed Chair Powell later Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) October 4, 2019
Turns out prime-age people still want to work, and are increasingly doing so. Jeanna Smialek (@jeannasmialek) October 4, 2019
Reaction: A mixed bag of results
?? #US #nonfarm: mixed bag with headline and wage growth disappointing... but with positive revisions and a lower unemployment rate there's also ammunition for the hawks in Fed (for not cutting rate further). $EURUSD #USD#NoSmokingGun Danske Bank Research (@Danske_Research) October 4, 2019
US #jobs are 'ok' for now. Nonfarm #payrolls +136K September, August revised upward to +168K. jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 4, 2019
Headline Nonfarm Payrolls miss at 136,000 (145,000)
But the big news is a drop on Average Hourly Earnings (flat on the month) and +2.9% for the year (+3.2% exp)

Not positive for USD, but plays into Fed cuts Richard Perry (@HantecRich) October 4, 2019
US unemployment hits lowest level since 1969
Strikingly, the US unemployment figures fell, hitting levels not seen since 1969. That is remarkable, given most analysts had expected it to stay at 3.7.
BREAK: US jobs change falls short of expectations, August adjusted up
Its another miss, but Augusts figures have been revised up so its a mixed picture.
Non-farm payrolls change: 136,000 (145,000 expected, August: 168,000)
Private payrolls change: 114,000 (130,000 expected, August 122,000)
US jobs data coming up...
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Us jobs data is expected to be soft, following a run of weak economic readings this week

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
A reminder that there are two numbers to watch for: the change in headline non-farm payrolls, and in private payrolls.
Polling by Bloomberg suggests the total NFP jobs added will be 145,000 (from 130,000 in August), with private payrolls at 130,000 (from 96,000 in August).
Sentiment has definitely shifted in the past weak though, so the two big ISM data misses will not have been taken into account.
Well also get unemployment data, which is expected to stay at a four-decade low of 3.7pc.
Five minutes to go!
Lunchtime wrap: FTSE looks nervous as jobs data looms
The FTSE 100 is up about 0.35pc currently, aided by a weakening pound and some solid upwards drag by the heavyweight energy sector.
The fall puts the blue-chip index on course for its biggest weekly drop in 20 months.
It has been a pretty quiet morning overall, with a sense of anticipation dominating ahead of US jobs data in just under three quarters of an hour.
Heres a quick re-cap of the mornings top stories:
Drivers and homeowners to save ?200 under plans to ban unfair insurance price hikes:Consumers could pay ?200 less for insurance when they renew under plans from the financial watchdog to ban firms from unfairly hiking prices.
BP appoints insiderBernard Looney as chief after Bob Dudley retires:BP has appointed an insider as its new boss after announcing the retirement of four-decade company veteran Bob Dudley as chief executive.
Hong Kong economy faces recession as anti-China protests take their toll:Hong Kongs economy is set to shrink this year as pro-democracy protests combined with the trade war and a global slowdown drive shoppers and tourists away, crush demand for local companies and push investors to do business elsewhere.
Hong Kong faces recession
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Anti-government protesters gather in Central Hong Kong

Continued disruption in Hong Kong by pro-democracy protesters could knock the financial hub into a a recession, my colleague Tim Wallace reports. He writes:

Equities on its stock exchange fell another 1.1pc on Friday as the citys political crisis deepened. Warnings that face masks could be punished with fines andup to a year in jailwere met with renewed gatherings of activists.
Business activity is tumbling at close to the fastest pace recorded since the financial crisis, according to IHS Markit.
Read more here:Hong Kong economy faces recession as anti-China protests take their toll
Bloomberg captures the mood on the markets...
-It's jobs day
-It's jobs day
-It's jobs day
-Stocks wait for jobs number
-It's jobs day Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 4, 2019
Marks & Spencer shares drop after rating cut
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

M&S is trialling a new store design in Clapham
Shares in M&S are down about 4pc currently, making it the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 which it joined last month.
The drop follows a downgrade by analysts at HSBC, who said green shoots of progress in its food division were being offset by a lack of progress in its clothing and home arms.
Noting the difficulties of creating a dynamic supply line, and dealing with competition, analysts wrote:

M&S has yet to develop a point of difference on product: M&S has fallen short of the contemporary and wearable fashion aspirations key to accessing mainstream customers to which it aspires. This is compounded by fit and buyingratios that, while well suited to M&S typically older customers, fails to reflect mainstream market demand.
Heres the Telegraphs Bryony Gordon on the companys new-look stores:
My new-look M&S shows how desperate the high street has become
Commons people: Whats happening in Westminster?
Heres a quick update on politics and the whole Brexit thing. Five key points:
Rory Stewart is standing to be Mayor of London
Remaining in the EU is what Britain wants, Leo Varadkar says
PM suggests he will give MPs a vote on Brexit plans before EU summit
Corbyn urged to intervene after Labour members table confidence vote in Jewish MP
Priti Patel tells Facebook it is creating a 'digital blindspot' for paedophiles and terrorists
As ever, you can follow along with the latest updates with my colleague Amy Jones on our politics live blog: Brexit latest news: Rory Stewart will stand to be London Mayor after resigning as MP
Profile | Rory Stewart
Brace of poor surveys adds to Brexit gloom for businesses
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Research by BDO found the high street had its worst September in eight years

Christopher Pledger
Heres a reminder that a couple of bleak survey findings could be adding to investor nerves today.

The balance of manufacturers reporting increased export orders was at its lowest level since the financial crisis, according to a quarterly survey by the British Chambers of Commerce, while the balance of those with higher domestic orders was the worst since 2011.
Adam Marshall, director general of the BCC, said: These are some of the worst figures weve seen in a decade and jobs, businesses and the future success of our communities are on the line.
Meanwhile, accountants BDO said last month was the worst September in eight years for retailers as sales in stores plummeted. Brexit hang-ups, fewer shoppers visiting the high street and a raft of closures sent sales down 3.1pc last month.
Read more, including a wrap up of yesterdays economics and markets new, here.
City Intelligence newsletter (SUBSCRIBER) Article
FTSE sheds some gains
The FTSE 100 has shed gains slightly over the past hour, currently sitting just over 0.1pc up amid a wider pull-back across European indices, most of which are sat slightly in the red.
Commodity prices have been a bane on Londons blue-chip index all week, with the total market value wiped off the UKs biggest listed firms just over ?92bn overall on current numbers.
Could poor US jobs data prompt a further Fed cut?
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell

Could a sufficiently dire results for US payrolls later today force the Federal Reserve to make another interest rate cut?
The recovery in US stock markets yesterday has been credited in some quarters to an expectation of further easing from the central bank.
A tale of two ISMs. US stocks sold off aggressively following the manufacturing release but actually bounced not long after yday's services data- despite it falling to a 3-year low. Rising hopes for further Fed cuts no doubt playing a role. Is bad news now good? Focus now on NFPs David Cheetham, CFA (@DavidCheetham3) October 4, 2019
Cutting interest rates makes borrowing more attractive, which tends to lead to economic stimulation through increased spending. Some traders will be working on the hope that a bad results will push the Fed which sets interest rates to act for the third time in recent months.
One person who is sure to call for cuts is Donald Trump. The President has claimed he wants cuts as big as a percentage point, and even praised negative rates. The danger, policy hawks would say, is that by cutting now, you end up low on ammunition in the event of a severe downturn.
Trump v Powell | Federal Reserve Twitter bashing
Saxo Banks John Hardy disputes the idea that there is a Goldilocks zone for todays jobs figures in which there was sufficiently weak data to point to rapidly rising Fed efforts to bring further easing, but data not so weak as to suggest a profound reassessment of risky asset valuation or blow out credit spreads suggesting volatility is not yet high enough for a weakresult today to spook the Fed. He adds:

All told, todays payrolls release comes amidst an interesting set-up for both market technical and in terms of the market narrative. Most surprising would be a positive print, while to really surprise to the downside, we may need to see a print south of +50k together with chunky negative revisions to the prior two months data.
A tale of two ISMs. US stocks sold off aggressively following the manufacturing release but actually bounced not long after yday's services data- despite it falling to a 3-year low. Rising hopes for further Fed cuts no doubt playing a role. Is bad news now good? Focus now on NFPs David Cheetham, CFA (@DavidCheetham3) October 4, 2019
FCA insurance proposals: analysts react
Bloomberg has pulled together some of the reaction from analysts to the FCAs plans for fighting the loyalty penalty on insurance renewal. Here are some highlights:
Shores Paul DeAth says the implementation of the watchdogs proposals could be difficult. He adds: We expect those firms more focused on switching... will be better placed to adjust to the new rules.
Cannacord Genuitys Joanna Parsons says the final report date in 2020 means the issue will act as a drag on the sector for a longer period.
Citis James Shuck branded the FCA report frustratingly light on actual suggestions/remedies, and said it could put pressure on investors.
Liberums Joe Brent labelled the report harsh, but said AA could benefit as a disruptor.
HSBC slips as Hong Kong tensions bubble on
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

A combo picture shows protesters wearing face masks during a protest against an anti-mask law meant to deter anti-government protesters in Hong Kong

HSBC is the FTSE 100s biggest drag this morning amid raised tensions in Hong Kong, where the lender does a lot of its business.
The Asian financial hubschief executive Carrie Lam invoked emergency powers this morning to introduce a ban on people covering their face at public gathering, the first time such laws have been used since the end of British colonial rule.

Read more here:Hong Kong bans face masks under emergency rule as Lam says city in critical state of public danger

Those who break the rule which covers materials including paint could face up to a year in prison. The decision has sparked fresh outrage in the country, with crowds forming a blockading roads in the citys downtown area.
Liberum analysts: Trade war and slowdown mean investors should keep selling miners
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Several major mining groups are weighing on the FTSE 100 today

Rupak De Chowdhuri/REUTERS
The FTSE is a healthy-enough 0.4pc up currently, though I think it bears repeating that we look set for a day of two halves either side of the US payroll data in just over three hours time.
That puts the blue-chip in line for its worst fall since last December currently, though its a close-run thing.
Britains top index is being lent a hand by a weakening pound, which appears to be taking a breather after yesterdays Brexit-hopes jump.
Some of the biggest drag on the FTSE 100 is coming from Londons biggest listed miners, with Glencore and BHP both among heavy fallers.
Liberum analystssay investors should avoiding mining stocks as Chinas economy continues to cool off. They highlighted limitations on the Asian economic giants central bank:

PBoCs ability to stimulate demand through loose monetary policy is either waning, or constrained...
...On the supply side, disruptions to the seaborne iron ore market are dissipating and the second wave of supply side reform in China is undoing the benefits created in the first wave for the bulk materials.
Economic Intelligence newsletter SUBSCRIBER (article)
Full report: FCA unveils plan for loyalty penalty crackdown
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Telegraph Moneys Sam Barker has a full report on the FCAs plans, which he says means drivers and homeowners could pay ?200 less for insurance when they renew. Sam reports:

The FCA said around 6 million policyholders are overpaying around ?1.2bn a year due to this method, with consumers being charged?200 more than they should be on average.
Gareth Shaw, of Which?, said: It is right that the regulator is proposing solutions to stop these sharp pricing practices.
"Existing insurance customers can be left paying hundreds of pounds more than new customers as a result of complex and opaque pricing systems.
Key numbers: UK Motor insurances
Read more here:Drivers and homeowners to save ?200 under plans to ban unfair insurance price hikes
Money Newsletter REFERRAL (Article)
Ted Baker veers towards worst week ever
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Ted Baker shares tanked yesterday after it warned over trading conditions

Jack Taylor/Getty
Shares in retailer Ted Baker have dropped again today, off more than 10pc following yesterdays 35pc wipe-out.
The company has warned on trading conditions, and said it expects sales in the second half would fall below last years levels.
Has Ted Baker fallen out of fashion?
Read more here:Ted Baker woes dent Ray Kelvins fortune by ?215m
Shares are at their lowest level since 2010.
Peel Hunt: FCA ruling forces car insurers to adapt
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Shares in Direct Line are about 2pc down

Suzanne Plunkett/REUTERS
If the proposed changes to car insurance renewal premiums are pushed through, it could force companies to reassess their revenue streams possibly leading to higher prices for new customers.
Reacting to the FCAs ruling, analysts at Peel Hunt note:

What the FCA is not proposing is strict pricing regulation (caps or rate bands) in the insurance market. So far, there are also no remedies relating to ancillary products or instalment income

They say the main impact of the change could be to lower renewal rates and perhaps increase new business rates and reduce discounting practices.
They noted that the motor insurance industry is already highly competitive, but believe pricing freedoms shouldnt be overly restricted by the watchdogs ruling.
Insurance firms fall on FCA crackdown proposal
Shares in listed insurance firms stumbled in early trading, with AA, Hiscox,Direct Line, Admiral, Hastings, Legal & General and Aviva all dropping, after the Financial Conduct Authority announced it may ban loyalty premiums that mean customers who renew their insurance face higher charges.
The City watchdogs actions, outlined in an interim report today, may mean a ban on automatic price rises and a push to shift firms onto cheaper deals.
Its research found about 6m policyholders are paying high prices, because of policies that punish renewals. Its main finding include:
Insurers often sell policies at a discount to new customers and increase premiums when customers renew, targeting increases at those less likely to switch.
Longstanding customers pay more on average, but even some people who switch pay higher prices.
The premium often land most strongly on vulnerable customers
The FCAsChristopher Woolard said:

This market is not working well for all consumers. While a large number of people shop around, many loyal customers are not getting a good deal. We believe this affects around 6 million consumers.
We have set out a package of potential remedies to ensure these markets are truly competitive and address the problems we have uncovered. We expect the industry to work with us as we do so.
Investor newsletter REFERRAL (article)
BBC: John Lewis wants rent cuts
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

John Lewis is reportedly seeking discounts

Leon Neal/Getty
Big retail news from the BBC this morning, which reports John Lewis is trying to get discounts from its landlords in a bid to cut costs.
The broadcaster reports the department store has told landlords it will withhold as much as 20pc of the service chargefor the quarter, which covers additional fees paid on top of rent.
Heres our latest on the company:John Lewis boss warns of more pain ahead after drastic ?100m cutbacks
Comment | Fundamental change is required at John Lewis
The Think Tank: Will Remainers cancel Christmas?
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

The Remainers, Tom writes, could steal Christmas this year
Logo: The Think Tank
Heres some economics to gain your brain going this morning my colleague Tom Rees writes:

Christmas dinner has become a tenseoccasion in post-Brexit vote Britain. Bah humbug, the Remainers grumble over the turkey and sprouts, as the debate erupts all over again after a few hours carefully avoiding the topic.
If there are fewer presents under the tree this year, Retail Economics knows who will be to blame.
Its research has found that being a Remoanercould affect your spending habits as we enter the so-called golden quarter for the battered retail industry,the run-up to Christmas.
Read more here:Why only Brexiteers plan to splash out on presents this year
Markets open: BP shares jump
Trading had begun, and the FTSE 100 has narrowly advanced, climbing 0.21pc immediately.
Shares in mining giant BP are up about a percent: that is immediately good news for the FTSE 100, where it is one of the most heavyweight constituents.
Look ahead: Markets hold breath for US jobs data
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

The US is expected to have added more jobs in September than August

Its set to be a fairly quiet morning for corporate news, so investors may be looking ahead to when America wakes up to get the lowdown on closely-watched US jobs figures.
The Land of the Free has majorly missed the goalposts twice this week: first on Tuesday, with manufacturing sector activity data, and then yesterday with the same metric for services.
Those misses have severely knocked sentiment, and raised worries that non-farm payrolls and private payrolls change data today could fall short of expectations. Well get those figure at 1:30pm. Deutsche Banks Jim Reid says:

After the two big ISM misses this week including yesterdays services miss... arguably this has become one of the most anticipated employment reports for a long time.

He adds, however, that a bearish mood has already taken hold:

...clearly weve seen a big step change in expectations this week given the data and even an in-line payrolls reading today shouldnt do much to change the narrative.

Bloombergs John Authers brands the payroll data a reliable excuse for volatility, so reactions could be sharp. Of course, theres one index that really would rather the pain stopped:
Bears feast on recession fear as ?95bn falls off the FTSE
Business Briefing Newsletter REFERRAL (Article)
BP appoints insider as boss Bob Dudley announces retirement
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

Bernard Looney will replace Mr Dudley
As heavily hinted earlier in the week, BP boss Bob Dudley is heading for the door. My colleague Michael ODwyer reports:

Mr Dudley, 64, will step down following the energy giants full-year results in February before retiring from the board at the end of March. BP wasreported in recent daysto be planning the announcement of his exit.
He will be replaced byBernard Looney, 49, currently boss of BP's upstream operations.

It has been quite the week for FTSE boss moves Michael has explained why here:
All change: Does the deluge of FTSE bosses departing signal trouble ahead?
Agenda: FTSE hopes for relief after days of losses
Mixed jobs report relieves markets as US unemployment hits 50-year low

The FTSE had its worst day since early 2019 on Wednesday

Vulture Labs/Getty
Good morning. TheFTSE 100 fell for a fourth successive session yesterday and is on track for its worst week since January 2016following a slew of poor economic data and Brexit pressures.
Around ?95bn has been wiped off the market value of Londons biggest firms this week, including Wednesdays 3.2pc wipe-out, hitting millions of savers pension investments as traders fret over the severity of a global economic slowdown. Miserable data from mainland Europe and the US suggested the whole world is slowing sharply, let's see what today will bring.

5 things to start your day

1)Does the deluge of FTSE bosses departing signal trouble ahead?Whenever a company boss departs, it feels personal. Whether they go out on a high or are axed by a furious board, any FTSE chiefs exit is inevitably seen through the simple prism of their own success or failure. But this weeks departures byDave Lewis from Tesco and Alison Cooper of Imperial Brandscarry a broader significance.
2)Will Remainers cancel Christmas? Only Brexiteers plan to splash out on presents this year:Around 30pc of Remain voters say Brexit is the biggest cause of concern affecting their confidence to spend, compared to just 6pc of Leave voters.Some 86pc of Brexiteers believe that Brexit is not important at all in their spending decisions while almost half of Remainers plan to spend slightly lessor much less for this Christmas.
3)Awkward!Firm founded by David Cameron's mother-in-law warns of hit from Brexit:A high-end furniture sellerco-founded by David Camerons mother-in-law haswarned its earnings could be hit by Brexit as losses widened.Oka made ?32m of revenue from selling dining tables and sofas for as much as ?6,050, but losseswidened to ?8.2m from ?180,000 for the 11 months from January to the end of December, Companies House accounts showed.
4)Thomas Cooks collapse is expected to cost the taxpayer an extra ?60m in unpaid wages, holiday pay and redundancy fees.The bill -which is on top ofthe cost of repatriating more than 150,000 holidaymakers -was revealed as it emergedthat Brussels rules prevented hundreds of Thomas Cook shops from accessing a critical tax breakahead of the firm's collapse.
5)Gisela Abbam, the first black chair of the British Science Association, has been named Black British Businessperson of the Year. At a ceremony at St Pauls Leonardo Royal Hotel in London tonight, Ms Abbam, who has also negotiated World Trade Organisation level trade policy, on the elimination of tariffs on key medical devices to enable increased access for patients in 80 countries, said she was humbled and honoured to win the prestigious award.

What happened overnight

Stocks inAsiawere mixed Friday as investors awaited the key monthly American employment report and subsequent comments due from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Treasuries retained an overnight advance.
Japanese shares edged lower, with the Topix index at risk of capping its biggest weekly decline since May. Equities in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia were little changed.
Earlier, the S&P 500 rose the most in a month after climbing back from a drop of more than 1pcsparked by the weakest reading on the USservices sector in three years. Market pricing for a Fed interest-rate cut at the next meeting climbed.
This weeks slew of poor data confirmed the global economy is struggling for traction, and went some way to validating concerns the weakness may be seeping from the manufacturing sector into consumer sentiment, as the US-China trade war continues.
Thats also driving bets that the Fed will pump more stimulus into the economy this year. Focus now turns to the non-farm payrolls figure, and then to Powells address later Friday.
The facts are that the U.S. consumer still looks terrific, were coming into a third quarter earnings season where were not seeing revisions downward or upward either, and thats all pretty good news for the market, Sherry Paulat UBS Global Wealth Managementtold Bloomberg TV. And then we combine all that with the beating drum of the Fed, continuing their rate policy.
Meantime, China remains shut amid a week-long holiday.

Coming up today

Full-year results:Bailie Gifford Japan Trust, Henderson Eurotrust
Economy:Balance of Trade (US), Non-Farm Payrolls (US), Unemployment Rate (US)
On Septembers US non-farm payrolls data, the consensus is for 146,000 jobs, but the whisper number is 125,000 after a disappointing ADP report.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak.
See also:
Leave a comment
  • Latest
  • Read
  • Commented
Calendar Content
«     2020    »