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Pound powers forward as recession fears fade live updates

Sterling advances again after surprise growth figures, weighing down FTSE 100
UK economy grew 0.3pc in July, reducing fears of third-quarter contraction
Europe markets flatahead of busy week
activityby Ulster Bank found that private sector activity in the region may already be in recession.
Seasonally-adjusted purchasing managers index data gave a score of 45.4 for August, compared to 45 in July (where a score over 50 indicates growth).
[url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/fisher-investments-uk/purchasing-managers-indexes/]Heres what PMI data means

Although the reading signalled a slightly weaker fall in output, the rate of contraction remained marked, the bank said.
The lender said in its full report:

Uncertainty surrounding Brexit underpinned much of the weakness seen in the Northern Ireland private sector midway through the third quarter. A steep decline in new orders extended the current sequence of contraction in new work to seven months, with the fall in Northern Ireland much faster than the UK average. Only retail was able to generate an improvement in sales. Foreign customers were also reportedly reluctant to commit to new projects given Brexit uncertainty. As a result, new export orders decreased sharply again.

The survey found:
New orders decreased for the seventh month running
Firms continued to deplete backlogs of work
A sharper fall in employment
The rate of input cost inflation was at a seven-month high
A solid increase in output prices
Companies were pessimistic regarding their 12-month outlook
A steep decline in new export orders
If you want to know more about the disproportionate GDP changes in different parts of the UK ecnomy, read this by our economics editor Russell Lynch:
Struggling financial sector hits Londons growth
UK regional 2018 GDP growth
8:42AM
GDP figures in the spotlight
Pound powers forward as recession fears fade  live updates

Workers are seen crossing London Bridge in a bus at sunrise

Credit:
TOBY MELVILLE/REUTERS
Before the full tide of Brexit once again washes over us, heres what you need to know about the days main event: UK GDPfigures for July, due out at 9:30am.
The numbers from the Office for National Statistics, measuring growth, will offer the best measure of how much the UK economy grew (or shrank) during July, giving a crucial reading on the impact Brexit had over the summer.
The UK economy shrank 0.2pc overall during the second quarter (the three months to the end of June). If it contracts againfrom early July to the end of September, the UK will have entered a technical recession.
A survey of 25 economists and groups by Bloomberg estimates that GDP with have grown slightly, from a flat reading in June to 0.1pc growth. That would put the rolling quarterly figures (for May/June/July) at 0.1pc.
UK Quarterly GDP Growth
The services sector will be closely watched: its the powerhouse of the UK economy. There are signs of potential weakness, however, including purchasing managers index data that suggests activity in the services sector is slowing down.
Read more: UK slipping into recession as businesses clam up before Brexit
This survey indicates the economy is heading for its first recession in a decade
The figures for the first and second quarters of 2019 showed that a period of raised activity driven by stockpiling and preparation for the UKs anticipated exit from the EU was followed by an unwinding period, in which companies worked through their stockpiles.
Some analysts have suggested the pattern could repeat itself, meaning activity will pick up ahead of the October 31 Brexit deadline.
Investec analysts said:

For some time we had looked for Q3 GDP to be boosted by an absence of seasonal automotive retooling in July, but weak SMMT car production data has called this into question. Overall we look for a modest 0.1pcmonthly rise in GDP in July and for Q3 as a whole to just about eke out a 0.1pcrise. But we are questioning the possibility of a repeat contraction in Q3, which would mean that the UK is in a technical recession.
31 out of 36 OECD countries have reported GDP figures for Q2 2019. Hungary top of the table (5.2%y/y) with Turkey at the bottom (-1.4%y/y). US top of the G7 (2.3%y/y) with Germany (0.4%y/y) & Italy (-0.1%y/y) at the bottom. UK's 1.2%y/y puts just behind France (1.4%y/y). pic.twitter.com/dJMydilgyU Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 9, 2019
8:11AM
Europe markets open upbeat
Its been a positive, if muted, start for Europes stock markets, with plenty on the political and economic calendar this week: chiefly the latest moves in Westminster (starting with Boris Johnsons trip to Dublin today), and the European Central Banks decision on interest rates (on Thursday).
Pound powers forward as recession fears fade  live updates

Credit:
Bloomberg TV
Sterling is slightly down against the dollar and euro, still on a come-down from last weeks surge.
7:38AM
BA pilot strike gets underway
British Airways has grounded most of its flights as a two-day strike by pilots gets underway today.
There was little progress over the weekend to end the dispute over pay, meaning that pilots will walk out en-masse today and tomorrow. Its estimated the disruption could cost the airline up to ?80 million.
Industrial action is also planned for Sep 27, withdisruptions mainly expected toaffect London, where BA operates fromHeathrow and Gatwick airports.
7:30AM
Lloyds PPI claims costs could reach ?1.8bn
A surge in the number of PPI claims atLloydsahead of the Aug 29 deadline will force it to make a separate provision as part of its third quarter numbers, the bank has revealed.
Having previously expected to see around 190,000 claims a month, Lloyds said it received between 600,000 and 800,000 claims per week in the final month alone.
PPI is over but are you owed thousands for these three other mis-selling scandals?
This could lead to a one-off charge in the region of ?1.2 billion to ?1.8 billion, although the bank warned it is still processing claims and the final number could be higher or lower than this initial estimate.
It echoes similar statements from RBS and owner of Clydesdale Bank CYBG which both unveiled higher than expected PPI costs last week.
7:15AM
And were off!
Pound powers forward as recession fears fade  live updates

Im afraid we will once again be hearing a lot from these hallowed halls

Credit:
Jason Alden/Bloomberg
Good morning, as markets prepare for another day of political turmoil with a fresh general election vote, investors will be watching for upcoming GDP figures later today and any other market shifts from action at Westminster.
However, there has been some good news, according to economists from BNP Paribas and CEBR. Britain ought to be in line for a long-term jobs boost thanks to booming science and technology sectors, come what may on votes this week.
Economists at the bank warned against falling into the trap of short-termism. Words to live by. Here are the rest of todays talking points.

5 things to start your day


1) The pound could face further shifts today, but its recent weakness is affecting different sectors. These are the winners and losers,writes Tim Wallace.
2) Ahead of its results this week, could Morrisons find itself in the bargain bin as a retail takeover target?
3) Car dealer Pendragon has been conducting a beauty parade of advisers to help repair the seller as car sales continue to suffer.
The UK is bottom of the class in a stellar year for car sales
4) British Airways has urged passengers not to show up as it faces its first ever pilots strike. More than 1,600 flights have been cancelled at the IAG airline.
5) There has been a call for a free ports boost by scrapping business rates. The boss of Port Zones UK, a group promoting a wave of new UK free ports, has called for extra incentives.

What happened overnight


Asian stocks tip-toed higher on Monday amid a cautious market mood as investors hoped for stimulus to support growth in the world's major economies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.1pc.
The Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.4pc.
Australian stocks edged up 0.1pc, South Koreas KOSPI rose 0.7pc and Japan's Nikkei was up 0.4pc.
Hong Kong rose 0.2 percent but gains were tempered by profit-taking after last weeks surge as well as ongoing worries about months-long protests in the city, with fresh violence over the weekend.
Chinasexportsunexpectedly contracted in August, with sales to the UStumbling amid the escalating trade war between the two nations.
Exportsdecreased 1pc in dollar terms from a year earlier, while imports declined 5.6pc, leaving a trade surplus of $34.84bn, the customs administration said on Sunday. Economists had forecast thatexportswould grow 2.2pc, while imports would shrink by 6.4pc. Shipments to the USfell 16pc from a year earlier.
President Donald Trumps administration raised tariffs on Chinese goods at the start of the month, and is set to ratchet up levies further in October and again in December if there is no breakthrough.
Its bad on all fronts, said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. Add in the inevitable fall-off when USshipments finally catch up with 15pc and 30pctariffs, and its an ugly picture.

Coming up today


Trading statementAssociated British Foods
EconomicsGDP, manufacturing and industrial production (UK)
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