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Why investors in emerging-market bonds are so attuned to political risk

PAULO GUEDES might not be your first-choice brother-in-law. He is a close adviser to Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s populist president-elect, who is wistful for military rule. But if you invest in emerging-market government bonds, Mr Guedes is the sort of person you might want as economy minister, the post he will take up on January 1st. He was co-founder of BTGPactual, Brazil’s Goldman Sachs. He has a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago. He favours tax reform and privatisation.
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