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Premier League relegation: Who will go down?

Ten games left, 30 points to play for, three teams to go down. How will one of the tightest relegation fights in recent Premier League history pan out?In the past five seasons three teams in the relegation zone at this stage of the season have survived, so all is not lost for West Brom, Stoke and Swansea.On average, the number of points to guarantee survival in the previous 22 seasons is 36.6.
Taking 37 points as the safety mark, we look at the 13 teams below that mark and, with the help of super-computer SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) - created by @ProfIanMcHale at the University of Liverpool - predict the final Premier League table.You can also predict your own final table at the bottom.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
West Brom - 20th in table, 20 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 8; Highest Premier League finish: 8th (2012-13)Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 20th with 32 points
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Stoke - 19th in table, 26 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 10; Highest Premier League finish: 9th (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16)Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 19th with 38 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Swansea - 18th in table, 27 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 7; Highest Premier League finish: 8th (2014-15)Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 18th with 38 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Crystal Palace - 17th in table, 27 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 5; Highest Premier League finish: 10th (2014-15)Who have they got left to play[/IMG]"Hodgson has always maintained there is a hard work ahead. They may dip back into the bottom three but with their vociferous home support the best atmosphere in the top flight, they will bounce back out before May."[b]BBC commentator Jonathan Pearce: "Too many injuries, especially to Wilfried Zaha, could kill their chances of staying up. Roy Hodgson did it with Fulham and he can do it again. A final-day win against old manager Alan Pardew might come in the nick of time but the fans deserve better than this."SAM predicted finish: 17th with 39 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Southampton - 16th in table, 27 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 6; Highest Premier League finish: 6th (2015-16)Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 16th with 39 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Newcastle - 15th in table, 29 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

First season back in the Premier League.Highest Premier League finish: 2nd (1995-96, 1996-97)Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 14th with 41 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Huddersfield - 14th in table, 30 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

First season in the Premier League.Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]BBC commentator Jonathan Pearce: "I can see them beating Arsenal at home amid dramatic final-day scenes to stay up. I'd like to see that. It would be a romantic story in a functional age. The John Smith's roar can keep them up."SAM predicted finish: 15th with 40 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
West Ham - 13th in table, 30 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 6; Highest Premier League finish: 5th (1998-99)Who have they got left to play[/img]
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Brighton - 12th in table, 31 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

[b]First season in the Premier League
Who have they got left to play[/IMG][b]SAM predicted finish: 12th with 43 points.
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Bournemouth - 11th in table, 32 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Consecutive seasons in the Premier League: 3; Highest Premier League finish: 9th (2016-17)Who have they got left to play[/img]
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Watford - 10th in table, 33 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

[b]Consecutive seasons in the Premier League:
3; Highest Premier League finish: 13th (2015-16)Who have they got left to play[/img]
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Everton - 9th in table, 34 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

[b]Consecutive seasons in the Premier League:
26 (top flight since 1954-55); Highest Premier League finish: 4th (2004-05)Who have they got left to play[/img]
[img]data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/{width}{hidpi}/cpsprodpb/0933/production/_94655320_line976.jpg" data-sizes="auto" alt="line">
Leicester City - 8th in table, 36 points
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

[b]Consecutive seasons in the Premier League:
4; Highest Premier League finish: Champions (2015-16)Who have they got left to play[/img]
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

Professor Ian McHale and Dr Tarak Kharrat at the University of Liverpool created SAM, which predicts the outcome of football matches based on results, teams, players and every event in every match, and then simulates sequences of games.Here's SAM's prediction for the Premier League bottom six.
[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP//yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7[/img]

BBC Sport asked super-computer SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) to predict the final Premier League table.
Your bottom three
As of 17:00 GMT on Friday, 2 March...Thousands of you have had your say and this is how you think the bottom three will finish:
[b]20th:
West Brom - 92.78% of votes
19th: Stoke - 49.67%
18th: Swansea - 24.93%
However, Swansea also had 24.5% of votes saying they will finish in 17th place, just outside the relegation zone, followed by 20.20% with Crystal Palace.At the other end of the table, a whopping 97.21% feel Manchester City will go on to claim the title, while it was a close-run race for second position, as 46.31% feel Manchester United will end there, while 44.08% think Liverpool will come as runners-up.
Pick your final Premier League table
Pick how you think it will look in May, placing all 20 teams in order. Have a go then share with your friends.
See also:
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