News agency "Al Hamaca" that is responsible for the dissemination of propaganda in the Islamic state (IS), announced the death of Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - founder and leader of the organization. The source can most likely be trusted as it is related to the governance of the IS. Otherwise it would be very unlikely that the militant leaders have decided to undermine the morale of their supporters. At least it doesn’t make any sense, and refutation by the IS governance has not been published yet.
The report from "Al Hamaca" states that Abu Bakr died "on the fifth day of Ramadan" (ie June 11) from wounds received during the US air strike on Raggah town - "capital" of the Caliphate. However, there is no absolute guarantee of the death of the Caliph Ibrahim, as he is sometimes called. The fact that the Americans do not comment on the death of Abu Bakr, shows that they probably checking the source themselves. If they were confident of success, then it certainly wouldn’t take long as to releasing the victory report. But it is possible that we won’t hear anything like that from Washington. At this point the most interesting part begins.
This, sacred, Caliphate, described in the ancient scriptures, must have a number of "built-in" features. In particular, he must constantly fight, expanding his controlled territory. That is why the constant victory – is a necessary condition for the existence of the caliphate. It is not achieved at the cost of the advantage in numbers or weapons, but through a direct support of the God. According to the IS supporters present Caliphate can cope without a super-modern weapons, aircraft, or drones. If necessary, God can intervene in the course of the battle on the side of the Faithful. The God’s will not allow "infidels and hypocrites" to succeed.
At first, all went as planned. Islamic State has been destroying numerous enemies on all fronts, seizing new territory and raising fear in enemy soldiers, who began to suspect that they actually fought with undefeated army protected by the God. However, the intervention of the US and (to a lesser extent) Russian aviation has revealed that there are certain limits to the protection of the divine. Islamists were pushed on all fronts, causing great suspicion of their authenticity and sacredness.
The situation on the brink of "the king is unreal!" demands the leaders of the IS to take very radical actions. Caliph in this case does not only have an absolute power but also an absolute responsibility. The role of Caliph is associated with high occupational risks. In practice, this means the following. If military defeats do not stop for a long time, close associates of the Caliph are required to assemble a council and decide on his punishment. The crime is the loss of the favor of Allah. After the liquidation of "erring" Caliph the vacant throne is taken by the next male heir. The age of the new caliph does not matter; it only requires devoutness and belonging to the family of descendants of the Prophet Muhammad. There is not enough information about Abu Bakr’s family, but the teenage son of one of the three wives, does exist.
It is possible that Abu Bakr was sent to a better world not by the Americans, but by his own comrades. In order not to disturb people, for which only yesterday the Caliph Ibrahim was "the great founder of the caliphate," "saviour of mankind from sin," and so on, his death was heroized.
It is quite logical and reasonable action. But he can hardly solve the current problems of the caliphate, caused by a string of offensive military defeats at all fronts. Of course, there is a possibility that the new caliph (whoever he was) will be able to return the Favour of the Heaven to the Islamic State and, therefore, the success on the battlefield. However, the probability of this happening is quite low. It would require a real miracle to combat the US and Russian Air Force. In the context of the complete domination of IS enemies, it would be very hard for the Islamists fighting in the air to change the course of the war in which they are now suffering one defeat after another. If the current war dynamics persists, in the coming months caliphate may lose its administrative center – Raqqa as well as economic - Mosul and religious-ideological - Dabika. Such a course of actions would lead to the elimination of the Caliphate. The "Islamic State" can be considered to be closed.
However, some hope for improvement of the situation in the IS is possible. Like almost everything related to the caliphate, hope is more related to the metaphysical sphere, rather than to an objective reality.
The point is that in case of the execution of the ancient prophecy about the "last battle of the people" by the Dabik city in northern Syria, the IG will have a powerful argument in favor of its sacredness and authenticity that will be enough to cover all the previous failures. The essence of Prophecy is that this battle will join the army of "that", "authentic" Caliphate and the West, where the faithful will win. After that the sun will rise in the west, which will set off all other marvellous things to occur and this in turn will cause the second coming of the Prophet 'Isa (Jesus Christ). Well, and finally the end of the world will come - the stated purpose of the IS existence. Battle of Dabika that was predicted a half thousand years ago, is the key event in this sequence: it launches the whole process.
Leaders and militants of IS are eager to start this battle by trying hard to attract Western armies to the north of Syria. Since neither the Americans nor the Europeans are not particularly eager to send their soldiers there, the new caliph would have to use the only method available to it - terrorism. If the wave of terror in Western countries will be powerful enough to cause the immediate thirst for revenge, the ground invasion may begin. Since the most convenient "point of entry" into the IS territory is northern Syria, then Dabika battle would be almost guaranteed.
In fact, the involvement of Western troops, followed by "sacred" battle - is the only way to survive for the caliphate. Thus, the wave of terror must be incredibly powerful. In this sense, the bloody terrorist attack in the Orlando nightclub and the murder of the French policeman by the IS supporter may only be the beginning of this terrorist war. By the way, the Islamists have promised more attacks on their websites. Among the potential targets, for example, is Berlin Gay Pride.
By the end of its existence, the Islamic state can do a lot more troubles, its activity beyond its current borders will almost certainly increase by many times. It would be great if security services will be ready for it.